Page 21 - On The Move - Volume 18, Issue 3

Using a rolling seven-day estimate of used retail days’ Consumer confidence dips as economic growth
supply based on vAuto data, we see that used retail accelerates. The second estimate of the first-quarter
supply peaked at 115 days on April 8, 2020. Normal used real GDP increase was unchanged from the first
retail supply is about 44 days’ supply. It ended May at estimate of 6.4% (annualized). Personal consumption
38 days, which is below normal levels. We estimate that was revised up to 11.3% from the original estimate of
wholesale supply peaked at 149 days on April 9, 2020, 10.7% as increasing government transfer payments and
when normal supply is 23. It was down to 19 days by increasing activity especially in March drove a surge in
month end. consumer spending. Spending on goods was revised
up to a gain of 25.6%, while spending on services was
May total new vehicle sales were up 41% year-over-year, unchanged at the originally estimated gain of 4.6%.
with the same number of selling days compared to May Gross private investment was revised up to a decline of
2020. The May SAAR came in at 17.0 million, an increase 4.7%. The government spending increase was revised
from last year’s 12.1 million but down from May 2019’s 17.3 down to 5.8%. Since the aggregate real GDP level was
million rate. essentially unchanged, real GDP growth year-over-
year remained 0.4%. Consumer Confidence according
Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and to the Conference Board declined 0.3% in May and left
government buyers were up 222% year-over-year in confidence down 11.6% compared to February 2020.
May. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into the Plans to purchase a vehicle in the next six months slid to
dealer and manufacturer channel, we estimate that the a 13-month low.
remaining retail sales were up 33% year-over-year in
May, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 14.9 million, Plans to purchase a home also declined in May to a
up from 11.2 million last May and up from May 2019’s 13.5 more than nine-year low. Of particular concern in the
million rate. Conference Board data was a substantial erosion in
future expectations while the view of the present situation
Rental risk pricing softens. The average price for rental continued to improve. The final reading on Consumer
risk units sold at auction in May was up 21% year-over- Sentiment from the University of Michigan declined 6.1%
year. Rental risk prices were down 2% compared to April. in May and left sentiment down 17.9% from February
Average mileage for rental risk units in May (at 88,200 2020. The index reflected a slight improvement from
miles) was up 90% compared to a year ago and up 7% the original estimate earlier in the month. Each of the
month-over-month. measures for current conditions and future expectations
declined for the month.

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